Exercising Caution In The Face Of Technooptimism
Achintya Rao discusses Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Agitation and Failure by Vaclav Smil
The popular tech media—especially those in Silicon Valley—show that we're headed inexorably toward technological advancement and prosperity. This story of technological optimism is undeniably compelling: over the course of the twentieth century, we witnessed tremendous advances that transformed civilization, improved the lives of countless millions of people, and affected sectors from transportation to health care. However, in his new book Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure, environmentalist and policy analyst Vaclav Smil discourages questioning the claims of technology evangelists and analyzes some of the most notorious technological failures of the past and present. . Lessons we can learn and take from them.
In the book, Smil divides failed inventions into three categories: those with problems, those with unfulfilled promise, and those that fail to deliver. To provide the brief history he promises, he selects a number of examples for each case, carefully examining the origins of inventions and their social contexts.
But what is a technical fault? Smil notes that historians may object to the term "failed technology" because success is often the result of social context and the development of the right technology in the right place at the right time. However, he argues that the effect also goes in the opposite direction: if societies embrace technology and innovation, it can have a major impact on their development. For example, Smil compares the fall of the Soviet Union to the consolidation of the ruling party in the People's Republic of China, considering their relative capacity for innovation, particularly their success in assimilating foreign technology.
Unexpected results
Some inventions are clearly intended to cause harm (think of every weapon ever invented), but there are also inventions designed to solve critical problems that create new and worse problems.
Among three examples of "welcome-to-unwanted inventions," Smil points to the introduction of lead into gasoline to prevent automobile engines from "knocking," which caused some of the gas to build up in the engine in early automobiles. natural. The car was damaged as a result of the fire. Adding an additive to the fuel can reduce the occurrence of knocking noises. Although we've known that lead is highly toxic since the ancient Greeks, the metal was one of the options considered.
Smil goes on to explain that General Motors (GM) strongly defends the use of lead over alternatives such as ethanol, while ignoring the health problems associated with leaded fuel and stating that alternatives do not exist. GM's reason for taking this position is financial: the new industry that produces ethanol-containing fuel "cannot be controlled by GM."
Ultimately, Smil said, the reasons for the phasing out of leaded gasoline in the 1970s were less about lead-related health problems and more about reducing smog in American cities. The whole incident is a reminder of the power of pure greed.
My favorite chapter in the book
focuses on inventions that are meant tobe great
but will probably never live up to their promise.Here, Smil covers nuclear fission and supersonic flight, but I was more interested in the light-than-air flight (LTA) section.
Its history dates back to the end of the 18th century, when hot air balloon flights appeared. Even when they took the familiar form of "airships," these contraptions seemed almost outlandish by modern standards. Smil's descriptions of the speed and distance traveled by early airships lead me to believe that no one would have thought of these airships for serious travel; But they represented the future to the aviation pioneers of that time.
Smil details the emergence of airships in the early 20th century, which were used for goods delivery, military purposes, and commercial flights, although this latter application was quickly overshadowed by the Hindenburg disaster in 1939, when 35 of them died in an explosion. ended. 97 passengers died during the landing.
After World War II, airships slowly disappeared from our skies, and my hopes of seeing them reappear as a viable, environmentally friendly means of transportation in the 21st century were dashed when the author listed the many reasons why airships became the state. It has struggled to become commercially viable in the past. From the advent of airplanes and jet engines to the ever-present cloud of international politics, these obstacles will continue to exist for the foreseeable future. However, some proponents believe that advances in materials and movement could create a durable and reliable modern lifting solution; Smil even said that "the retirement of LTA ships is unlikely to happen anytime soon".
Hyperloop,
Smil begins the chapter "Inventions We've Always Been Waiting For" by looking at Elon Musk's "Hyperloop" (Smil disagrees with the name for etymological reasons). In the proposed high-speed transportation system, people would travel in capsules inside a very flat metal tube (not a ring) at very low pressure. The capsules will be supported by an air cushion, propelled by a magnetic linear accelerator and equipped with solar panels.
The general concept of near-vacuum space travel isn't new: I didn't know it was actually over two centuries old. Amazingly, in the 19th century, people seriously considered traveling the tube to cover the 600km distance between London and Edinburgh in just a few minutes.
It is not the case that these proposals are accepted unanimously. In fact, logistics were seen as a secondary issue, as Musk today - as Smil recalls - reduces the impact of kilometers, for example, on a complex route selection and approval process. Heavy towers will be needed over agricultural fields.
Smil's bookUnglamorous Innovation
is a measured warning not to be easily swayed by greatness. It reminds us that amazing progress in some areas is accompanied by a lamentable lack of progress in other, perhaps more important, areas. Given his background in environmental science, it's no surprise that Smil is drawing more public attention to traditionally unrelated fields like combating the looming climate catastrophe and eradicating cancer.
I read the book for several weeks and thought about many of the stories in it. There are certainly other examples that Smil could point to – as he himself admits – but I found his choices compelling.
However, if you want to explore the sociology of invention and failure, Invention and Innovation is not for you. While it's hard to disagree with the basic premise and context in which the term is used, I found it somewhat difficult to describe society as dominated by a group of "scientifically illiterate" people. But I found the book an enjoyable and useful read and hope to read it again in the future.
- 2023 MIT Press 232 p. $24.95
