Now that 2023 is almost over, we technology researchers have begun examining how technology will impact our world in the new year. I usually publish technology prediction columns for each coming year, but this year I want to address three big fears about how technology will impact our lives in 2024.
Before I share my list of fears, I would like to point out that technology in general has entered the lives of billions of people. When we began covering technology in 1981, we aimed primarily at a professional audience. Then, in 1991, we experienced a shift and personal computers began to broadly penetrate the consumer and educational markets. However, two technologies introduced in the 2000s made the technology available to a wider global audience. The first was social media. It started with MySpace, which launched in 2003, and then really took off with the launch of Facebook in 2004. Today, billions of people around the world use various social networks, so for most people this technology has become an integral part of their lives.
The smartphone is the second product that brings technology closer to billions of people. Although the first smartphones were introduced at the turn of the century, it was Apple's introduction of the iPhone in 2007 that accelerated interest in smartphones and the growth of the hockey stick. As a result, technology has permeated our lives in many ways and, for many, is now integrated into many of the things people do today.
The good news is that technology in general has a positive impact on our world, be it in the areas of business, education, communication, entertainment, etc.
However, we know that technology tools and websites are used for many nefarious, subversive and illegal purposes. As professional technology researchers, we must now recognize the positive and negative aspects of technology and consider them in our work.
As we enter the new year, technology will become even more important to people around the world. On the bright side, artificial intelligence will grow in importance and become more important to businesses, educators and consumers. Next year, as I wrote last week, we will see renewed interest in VR, XR and AR with the launch of Apple's Vision Pro and the wider adoption of smart glasses.
But I have serious concerns about the impact of technology on our lives in the new year.
My first concern would be the role of technology, particularly social media, in the 2024 US elections. We already know how this impacted our 2020 elections, but new technologies have since been introduced that could distort future elections even further ; profound tricks to mislead the public about political intentions or smear campaigns. I fear that deepfakes could be used for all sorts of malicious purposes, including during election campaigns.
It could also be that social media becomes weaponized in ways we cannot yet imagine. Elon Musk gave carte blanche to conspiracy theorists and fired thousands of people whose job it was to disseminate the content of . dangerous rhetoric. But as social media becomes increasingly flooded with political and persuasive content, they need help addressing the challenges of curbing offensive comments, especially as Election Day approaches in November 2024.
The second technological fear next year is the use of artificial intelligence in social networks. Although this fear extends beyond 2024, it will become even more prominent in the upcoming election year. Using tools like ChatGPT to promote political viewpoints, defame a candidate, etc. You can create a lot of political content
Modern AI technology has minimal safeguards to prevent its use in elections, for better or worse. I suspect that much of the AI content is generated as part of the electoral process and that much of it could be legitimate and/or intentional disinformation.
I have another tech scare for the new year. The US Congress will no longer play a role in 2024. As you know, Congress is so divided and somewhat paralyzed that success in passing legislation has been minimal in the past.
Some of these legislative decisions concerned artificial intelligence, many of which will be used to regulate artificial intelligence and make its use safer in the United States and around the world. Congress has passed very little AI-related legislation, and the chances of significant AI-related legislation being passed before the next election are close to zero. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and dozens of seats in the Senate are up for election in 2024. That means these lawmakers will be focused on their re-election next November as well as various global conflicts in Ukraine, Israel and Gaza.
In my conversations with insiders I know in Washington, they expect Congress to remain paralyzed and all major AI legislation to pass next year. This could mean that the role and influence of AI in future elections could be entirely outside US regulation, leaving those using AI for political purposes with minimal guidance on the use of AI in next year's elections.
Other technology issues can also be problematic, such as: B. Investing in cryptocurrencies, the importance and impact of blockchain, and others that could make the technology more difficult in 2024. In 2024, technology will hit harder and more black eyes will appear in the eyes. in the world until 2023, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and the Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX crypto fiasco broke out.
Next year, I expect more positive technology news in terms of new technological advances and the transition to artificial intelligence, which could further boost PC demand next year. But for 2024, I see a bleak outlook on my three biggest concerns about technology.
